St. Boniface—St. Vital Poised for a Conservative Pickup with Shola Agboola Leading the Charge

St. Boniface—St. Vital has always been a riding that swings with the times. Situated in Winnipeg and home to one of the country’s largest Francophone communities outside Quebec, it’s never been a safe seat for any party. Historically, it flips approximately every decade—often in response to national sentiment and the strength, or absence, of local incumbents. Right now, the signs point to another shift.

With longtime Liberal MP Dan Vandal stepping away, the riding heads into the next federal election without an incumbent for the first time in nearly ten years. That alone places it high on the list of competitive races. But it’s the national climate that makes this race especially consequential. Even under new leadership with Prime Minister Mark Carney, voters are fatigued. Concerns over affordability, inflation, and an absence of leadership on key files—especially a coherent plan to respond to a second Trump presidency and renewed tariff threats—are driving an appetite for change. As it has in the past, St. Boniface—St. Vital could be where that change takes shape.

Conservative candidate Shola Agboola enters this race with a clear advantage: he’s no stranger to voters. He finished second to Vandal in the last election and has remained visible and active ever since. That consistency matters. In open ridings, where party loyalty often takes a back seat to local presence and recognition, those factors can be decisive.

Agboola lives in the riding, raises his family here, and has kept engaged between elections. His children grew up in the community, and he deeply understands the value of ensuring they remain connected to its Francophone roots, including the importance of French-language education. He’s also been an active advocate for the Francophone population more broadly and is committed to working alongside all residents to ensure their voices are heard on Parliament Hill.

Beyond visibility, Agboola brings real credentials. He holds a Master’s in Public Administration and a Canadian Chartered Director designation—qualifications that speak directly to the type of leadership voters increasingly expect and that any serious prime minister looks for in a potential Cabinet member. With 18 years of public service as a Correctional Officer in the Department of Justice, Agboola has firsthand experience with issues at the core of many political debates: poverty, public safety, and community well-being.

He’s also heavily involved in the community, sitting on several local boards and contributing to initiatives focused on healthcare access, youth programming, and economic development. His approach isn’t one of top-down politics, but grassroots participation—an asset in a riding as diverse and dynamic as St. Boniface—St. Vital.

This riding includes working families, Indigenous residents, new Canadians, and a strong Francophone identity. It’s not a place where one-size-fits-all politics work. Agboola’s appeal is rooted in his ability to connect across those lines—not just during campaign season, but year-round. He isn’t presenting himself as a figurehead; he’s offering to be a working representative, grounded in lived experience and focused on delivering results.

Timing is also on his side. The Liberals, despite Carney’s new face at the helm, are struggling to regain their footing. Voters are less interested in resumes and more focused on outcomes. And so far, the Liberals have failed to articulate a clear plan to confront the economic uncertainty posed by renewed U.S. protectionism. That lack of clarity is particularly damaging in a province like Manitoba, where trade, agriculture, and infrastructure investment remain vital concerns.

The federal NDP, meanwhile, remains on the margins in this riding. Despite provincial strength, their federal presence has been historically weak here. With Jagmeet Singh’s leadership under pressure and national seat counts projected to decline, it’s unlikely they’ll shift the dynamic. This remains, as it has always been, a two-party race.

That makes the contrast even clearer. On one side: a governing party with no incumbent and a fading connection to its urban base. On the other: a Conservative candidate who’s known, prepared, and grounded in the realities of the community. Agboola is not running on theatrics or partisan gimmicks. His campaign is about credibility and fit.

He’s not reinventing himself. His message to voters is simple: representation should come from those who’ve done the work, lived the issues, and stayed present through the highs and lows. He respects the riding’s diversity and sees it as a strength—not a slogan. And most importantly, he’s prepared to advocate for every part of this riding in Ottawa from day one.

St. Boniface—St. Vital is never a guaranteed win for any party. It demands work. Agboola has put in that work. His community ties, professional background, and steady engagement have positioned him not just as a strong contender—but as a serious representative-in-waiting.

If the Conservatives are going to prove they can win in urban, multilingual, and diverse ridings, this is one of the key places to do it. And Agboola, with his measured approach and deep local investment, is the right candidate at the right time.

Every ten years or so, this riding flips. The incumbent is gone. The Liberal advantage has thinned. The fatigue is real. And the momentum has clearly shifted.

This is a seat we are projecting to be a huge pick-up for the Conservatives.